Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 19.333101 22.451775 26.195912 31.110078 37.529123 45.841501 57.804054
2025-01-19 14.880278 18.274977 22.730525 29.239660 38.956543 53.804576 80.394215
2025-01-26 14.278198 18.460656 24.434669 34.163669 50.988978 82.497588 159.818512
2025-02-02 13.190178 17.656337 24.421162 36.353570 59.545929 111.573556 290.826347
2025-02-09 11.581970 15.788203 22.361864 34.481031 59.699799 123.164175 406.044507
2025-02-16 10.892976 15.196154 22.198056 35.887554 67.214672 161.031734 838.879729
2025-02-23 10.107037 14.333549 21.413753 35.874616 71.518229 195.438016 1764.350953
2025-03-02 9.426822 13.555491 20.645404 35.689203 75.360919 235.257533 4844.971155
2025-03-09 8.935359 13.032441 20.250888 36.198808 81.508163 299.959739 55021.354016
2025-03-16 8.265648 12.139334 19.050721 34.631893 80.636964 325.865480 NaN
2025-03-23 7.848810 11.645843 18.548893 34.594390 84.896755 402.354720 NaN
2025-03-30 7.302070 10.880181 17.435756 32.869241 82.509465 421.060323 NaN
2025-04-06 6.702410 10.007841 16.087558 30.493886 77.445099 411.149684 NaN
2025-04-13 6.212383 9.302840 15.017471 28.679234 74.020329 415.719136 NaN
2025-04-20 6.382298 9.793278 16.395147 33.458426 100.497877 1083.635270 NaN
2025-04-27 6.286100 9.782946 16.735196 35.580528 118.373528 2419.673211 NaN
2025-05-04 5.905241 9.207149 15.794978 33.766094 113.946691 2600.698550 NaN
2025-05-11 5.781504 9.112561 15.898630 35.129108 129.546258 7217.770640 NaN
2025-05-18 5.574870 8.842523 15.581293 35.116575 136.933505 18716.006273 NaN
2025-05-25 5.374126 8.570713 15.233227 34.936944 143.356291 85686.119335 NaN
2025-06-01 5.228196 8.397211 15.094340 35.430624 155.984534 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 4.978331 8.002874 14.405650 33.912329 150.655301 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 4.827637 7.799292 14.151923 33.875977 158.691154 NaN NaN